Golden age of house price growth is over, economists claim

Golden age of house price growth is over, economists claim
By: dailymail Posted On: July 03, 2025 View: 28

  • Between 1980 and 2016, house prices rose by an average of 6.7% per year

The golden age of property as an investment is over, according to economists at a major finance firm. 

The wealth manager Rathbones assessed the performance of stocks and shares versus house prices over the past century, and concluded that the boom years of bricks and mortar are now behind us. 

Since 2016 it found the price of residential property had barely kept up with inflation, rising at an average of 3.7 per cent per year.

In London, where buyers previously enjoyed the biggest gains, housing did even worse, with house prices rising at just 1.3 per cent a year. 

This meant they under-performed inflation by 2.2 percentage points each year. 

Those who bought property between the 1980s and early 2010s have benefited from the biggest gains.  

Between 1980 and 2016, house prices rose at a rate of 6.7 per cent annually, and 8.5 per cent in London - well ahead of inflation. 

How do stocks and shares compare to property? 

Since 2016, stock markets have risen significantly faster than property prices, according to the research.

The Rathbones economists found that £100 invested in UK property in 2016 would have been worth £134 in 2024. 

If the same amount had been invested in an indicative portfolio of 25 per cent UK and 75 per cent international equities, that would rise to £174.

Meanwhile, £100 invested in London property in 2016 would have increased to just £111 in 2024 on average.

'The idea that you can’t go wrong with bricks and mortar just isn’t true,' said Oliver Jones, head of asset allocation at Rathbones. 

'The data shows that diversified global investment has put to shame returns from housing over the last decade – and we believe this trend will continue.'

This, he said, is largely down to rising interest rates in recent years.  

'The earlier boom in house prices was fuelled by factors which no longer hold,' Jones continued. 

'The huge decline in interest rates from their generational high in the early 1980s won’t be repeated. 

'Homebuilding is rising after decades of very low rates, and government policy has become progressively less favourable to investors in residential property since the mid-2010s. The idea that money is safest in houses simply is not true any more.'

Looking back over more than a century, Rathbones found the average house price hovered around four times average annual earnings between 1910 and the late 1990s. 

However, after 2000 this more than doubled, with house prices rising to as much as eight times average earnings, leaving property much more expensive for the typical buyer.

 The old idea that property will always deliver is for the birds, and we strongly recommend taking advice

Further, after decades of low interest rates, global instability has created volatility in financial markets and fuelled inflation, pushing up mortgage interest rates

This has further impacted affordability for most first-time buyers and reduced the appeal of buy-to-lets and second homes used for holiday lettings bought using mortgages, acting as a drag on house prices.

Ade Babatunde, associate financial planning director at Rathbones. added: 'We’re being asked by many people who own second properties and buy-to-lets whether the time has come to sell up and invest their money instead.'

'This research should be a wake up call to anyone relying on property to support their financial ambitions, especially when thinking about retirement or succession planning. 

'The old idea that property will always deliver is for the birds and we strongly recommend taking advice.'

How to find a new mortgage

Borrowers who need a mortgage because their current fixed rate deal is ending, or they are buying a home, should explore their options as soon as possible. 

Buy-to-let landlords should also act as soon as they can. 

Quick mortgage finder links with This is Money's partner L&C

> Mortgage rates calculator

> Find the right mortgage for you 

What if I need to remortgage? 

Borrowers should compare rates, speak to a mortgage broker and be prepared to act.

Homeowners can lock in to a new deal six to nine months in advance, often with no obligation to take it.

Most mortgage deals allow fees to be added to the loan and only be charged when it is taken out. This means borrowers can secure a rate without paying expensive arrangement fees.

Keep in mind that by doing this and not clearing the fee on completion, interest will be paid on the fee amount over the entire term of the loan, so this may not be the best option for everyone. 

What if I am buying a home? 

Those with home purchases agreed should also aim to secure rates as soon as possible, so they know exactly what their monthly payments will be. 

Buyers should avoid overstretching and be aware that house prices may fall, as higher mortgage rates limit people's borrowing ability and buying power.

What about buy-to-let landlords

Buy-to-let landlords with interest-only mortgages will see a greater jump in monthly costs than homeowners on residential mortgages.

This makes remortgaging in plenty of time essential and our partner L&C can help with buy-to-let mortgages too. 

How to compare mortgage costs 

The best way to compare mortgage costs and find the right deal for you is to speak to a broker.

This is Money has a long-standing partnership with fee-free broker L&C, to provide you with fee-free expert mortgage advice.

Interested in seeing today’s best mortgage rates? Use This is Money and L&Cs best mortgage rates calculator to show deals matching your home value, mortgage size, term and fixed rate needs.

If you’re ready to find your next mortgage, why not use L&C’s online Mortgage Finder. It will search 1,000’s of deals from more than 90 different lenders to discover the best deal for you.

> Find your best mortgage deal with This is Money and L&C

Be aware that rates can change quickly, however, and so if you need a mortgage or want to compare rates, speak to L&C as soon as possible, so they can help you find the right mortgage for you. 

Mortgage service provided by London & Country Mortgages (L&C), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (registered number: 143002). The FCA does not regulate most Buy to Let mortgages. Your home or property may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage 

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