Contribution of 'Magnificent 7' to earnings growth is 'diminishing,' JPMorgan says
The influence of the "Magnificent Seven" on earnings growth among U.S.-based companies is dwindling by the quarter, according to JPMorgan.
The firm found that the earnings growth spread between Magnificent Seven stocks and the rest of the S&P 500 fell to 20% in the fourth quarter. That's the narrowest difference since the first quarter of 2023, when it came in at 10%.
"While still a meaningful driver of U.S. earnings growth, the contribution of Mag-7 is diminishing, with some of the group having underwhelmed this quarter," analyst Mislav Matejka wrote. "The spread between Mag-7 and S&P 500 ex Mag-7 earnings growth has reduced to the smallest in the last 7 quarters."
— Sean Conlon
Buy Iron Mountain on dip, Wells Fargo says
Wells Fargo is standing behind Iron Mountain after a rough week.
Shares have dropped about 10% so far this week. That would mark its worst weekly performance since 2022.
A large chunk of the decline came Thursday after the company posted slightly weaker-than-expected revenue for the fourth quarter. But it also took a hit earlier in the week after Elon Musk pointed to its mine where government retirement records are stored as an example of government inefficiency.
But Wells Fargo analyst Eric Luebchow told investors to see this pullback as a buying opportunity. He has an overweight rating and a price target of $125, which implies upside of more than 31% over Thursday's close.
"IRM earnings checked a lot of boxes," he said. In addition to "calmed nerves" around Musk's Department of Government Efficiency, he said the report showed a strong data center pipeline and growth either in line or ahead of expectations.
Iron Mountain, 5 days
— Alex Harring
UBS: Broad implementation of tariffs could weigh on equities, boost inflation
Although investors were relieved after Thursday's tariff announcements, any aggressive moves could ultimately lead to retaliation from U.S. trading partners and weigh on stocks, according to UBS.
"Markets will be watching closely for any shifts toward full enforcement, as a broad implementation of tariffs would raise inflation risks and likely weigh on equities, and have the potential to dent, but not derail, U.S. economic growth," said Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management.
UBS has a base case scenario of "selective tariffs" and expects targeted and negotiation-driven tariff outcomes. "There are risks of a tit-for-tat ratcheting up of measures," Marcelli wrote in a Friday note to clients.
— Pia Singh
The market feels the love on Valentine's Day
The S&P 500 historically turns green, not red, on Valentine's Day.
In all of the past Valentine's Day trading sessions, the broad market index has only dipped into negative territory seven times, according to the Carson Group's Ryan Detrick. The average gains come to around 0.28%, with a 63.2% positive rate.
That being said, investors usually tend to "swipe left" on the market after Valentine's Day. The second half of February typically markets a weak period for the S&P 500.
— Hakyung Kim, Adrian van Hauwermeiren
Dell pops on report of server sale to xAI
Dell shares were up more than 3% after Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that the chipmaker was nearing a deal to sell servers with Nvidia chips to Elon Musk's xAI. CNBC reached out to Dell for comment.
Friday's gain put the stock up more than 9% for the month.
DELL pops
DELL pops
— Fred Imbert
Stocks making the biggest moves midday Friday
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading:
- Warner Music Group — The entertainment stock popped 3% following an upgrade at Citi to buy from neutral. Citi analyst Jason Bazinet said Warner Music's multiple is "far below" those of its peers.
- Roku — Shares popped nearly 14% after the streaming company reported fourth-quarter results that beat analysts' expectations. Roku lost 24 cents per share on revenue of $1.2 billion. Analysts expected a loss of 40 cents per share on revenue of $1.14 billion, per LSEG. The company also said households using its platform grew by 12% year over year in 2024.
- Airbnb — The stock rallied 14% after the travel company's fourth-quarter numbers beat expectations. Airbnb earned 73 cents per share on revenue of $2.48 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG expected a profit of 58 cents per share on revenue of $2.42 billion.
The full list can be found here.
— Hakyung Kim
Tariffs likely to spur short covering in U.S. steel stocks, S3 Partners says
The imposition of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports into the U.S. by the Trump administration "may spur short covering in U.S. Metal & Mining stocks and short selling in international stocks," according to Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director of predictive analytics at S3 Partners, which specializes in tracking short sales.
"This added buy side and sell side pressure may boost positive momentum moves in U.S. stocks and negative momentum moves in international stocks — the short side of the market will certainly be adding volatility to the Metals & Mining industry," an S3 report out this week said.
S3 says "the largest shorts in the worldwide Metals & Mining industry are dominated by steel stocks."
Short interest in U.S. Steel recently stood at $805 million and accounted for 9.2% of the company's freely floating shares. Nucor was $754 million or 2.3% of the float and Carpenter Technology was $500 million or 5.7% of its float, S3 data showed. Nucor's short interest rose by $61 million over the past 30 days while Carpenter's added $49 million.
— Scott Schnipper
Gains on Valentine's Day are good news for the rest of the year, Oppenheimer says
Boxes of Valentine's Day chocolates are displayed on a shelf at a CVS store in Greenbrae, California, on Feb. 12, 2025.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
Valentine's Day "brings good news for bulls," according to Oppenheimer.
When the S&P 500 is 3% or higher on Feb. 14, the index has historically continued to rise for the rest of the year 93.8% of the time, with an average gain of 13.7% since 1950, the firm said.
— Pia Singh
Wall Street analyst sees 'no realistic path' to Trump's 50% defense spending cuts
Wall Street analysts aren't buying President Donald Trump's idea for a massive cut in defense spending.
On Thursday, Trump talked about a potential meeting with Russia and China in the future in which all three would agree to slash military spending. Trump said the U.S. could cut its defense spending by half.
Defense stocks fell on Thursday after the comments, but Wall Street analysts are skeptical of the idea, especially given that some of Trump's other recent comments have pointed to more defense spending.
"While it is an admirable goal to slash global arms and redirect funds to more productive uses, we see no realistic path. How would these leaders trust each other?" Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned said in a note to clients.
However, analysts were not urging investors to buy the dip.
"Cutting defense spending 50% seems unlikely, although headlines are driving defense stocks for now and today's news makes us question how much upside comes with FY26 request," said Wells Fargo analyst Matthew Akers.
One analyst who did not completely dismiss Trump's comments was Goldman's Noah Poponak, though even he is projecting only modest budget cuts over the medium term.
"A 50% reduction in the DoD budget would face hurdles. But there have been 30-40% drawdowns in US defense spending multiple times in the past, and the current budget is at its all-time high in absolute nominal dollars, creating a high starting point which makes large percentage reductions mathematically easier," Poponak wrote.
— Jesse Pound
Stocks are little changed at Friday's open
Apple shares up 6% for the week
Apple CEO Tim Cook looks at new iPhone models following Apple's "It's Glowtime" event in Cupertino, California, on Sept. 9, 2024.
Nic Coury | AFP | Getty Images
A series of announcements helped push Apple's stock 6% higher this week.
On Thursday, CEO Tim Cook said on social media site X that the company will launch a new product next week. That may potentially be a 4th-generation iPhone SE supportive of its artificial intelligence system, Apple Intelligence, Goldman Sachs said in a note Thursday.
In addition, Apple will integrate Alibaba's AI into its iPhones in China, Alibaba Chair Joe Tsai confirmed Thursday. The news was first reported by The Information on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Apple said it released an Apple TV+ app for Android phones.
"While investor sentiment on AAPL remains negative given skepticism around Apple Intelligence, competition in China and the smartphone upgrade cycle, we are encouraged the by upcoming rumored product releases (i.e. iPhone SE 4th gen and updated MacBook Airs) which should help sustain demand amidst smartphone and PC refresh cycles, as well as AAPL's efforts to address China smartphone competition with a more accessible price point ($499 rumored price) and AI features," Goldman analyst Michael Ng wrote.
— Michelle Fox
See the stocks moving before the bell
These are some of the stocks making notable moves in Friday's premarket trading:
- Moderna — The biotechnology stock fell 5.4% after posting a wider per-share loss than analysts polled by LSEG expected in the fourth quarter. On the other hand, revenue came in ahead of the Street's forecast.
- GameStop — Shares rallied 7.9% after sources familiar with the matter told CNBC that the video game retailer is considering investing in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
- Informatica — Shares plunged 35% after the cloud data management company provided downbeat guidance for the current quarter.
— Alex Harring
Moderna falls on disappointing earnings
The Moderna Inc. headquarters in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on March 26, 2024.
Adam Glanzman | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Moderna shares dropped more than 4% after the vaccine maker reported mixed quarterly results.
The company's fourth-quarter revenue of $966 million beat an LSEG estimate of $942.8 million. However, Moderna lost $2.91 per share during the period, marking a steeper loss than the $2.68 per share analysts had penciled in.
Moderna kept its 2025 product sales guidance intact in a range of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion.
— Fred Imbert
Asia-Pacific markets mixed as investors assess Trump reciprocal tariffs plan
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Friday after Wall Street rose overnight as President Donald Trump signed a reciprocal tariffs plan, but did not enact the levies immediately.
Mainland China's CSI 300 Index ended the day 0.87% higher at 3,939. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index traded up 3.48% in its final hour, extending its gains from the previous session. The HSI is on track to its highest weekly gain since last October.
South Korea's Kospi closed up 0.31% at 2,591.05, while the small-cap Kosdaq advanced 0.94% to end the day at 756.32.
The country's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate hit 2.9% in January, easing from its three-year high of 3.7% in the month before.
Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 ended the day 0.79% lower at 39,149.43, while the broader Topix index lost 0.23% to close at 2,759.21.
India's benchmark Nifty 50 lost 0.82%, while the BSE Sensex index was down 0.83% in choppy trading as of 1.p.m. local time.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.19% higher at 8,555.80.
— Amala Balakrishner
Retail investor pessimism rises to highest since November 2023, AAII survey shows
Almost half of all Main Street investors responding to a weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors are bearish on the outlook for stocks over the next six months, the largest number since November 2023. Pessimism rose to 47.3% in the survey out Thursday, from 42.9% last week and the most since 50.3% in late 2023.
The historical average for bearishness is 31.0%.
Only 28.4% of individual investors responding to the survey described themselves as bullish, down from 33.3% last week but only the lowest reading in a month. The historical average for optimism toward stocks is 37.5% over the life of the survey, which dates to the mid-1980s. The remainder of respondents are neutral toward stocks.
Nearly three out of five investors, or 57.4%, believe tariffs will slow the economy and raise prices, according to a special question asked by AAII. About a fifth, or 20.4%, think they'll have "a temporary impact but not a lasting one," while 12.5% said tariffs "will eventually lead to a stronger domestic economy." About 10% saw no to limited effect, or had no opinion.
— Scott Schnipper
Stock making the biggest moves after hours: GameStop, Coinbase and more
These are the stocks moving the most in after-hours trading:
- GameStop — The video game retailer and meme-stock favorite jumped 7% in extended trading. GameStop is considering investing in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, sources familiar with the matter told CNBC.
- Coinbase — Shares of the cryptocurrency marketplace rose nearly 1% after fourth-quarter earnings outpaced expectations.
- Airbnb — Shares soared 12%. The vacation rentals company earned 73 cents per share on $2.48 billion in revenue in its fourth quarter. Analysts had penciled in earnings of 58 cents and revenue of $2.42 billion, according to LSEG.
Read the full list of stocks moving here.
— Lisa Kailai Han
Stock futures are little changed