Why are so many planes crashing? Scientists weigh in on slew of incidents - as the latest accident kills 12 including famous singer

Why are so many planes crashing? Scientists weigh in on slew of incidents - as the latest accident kills 12 including famous singer
By: dailymail Posted On: March 19, 2025 View: 58

Already in 2025, a succession of commercial airplane crashes have sadly claimed the lives of over 100 people – including the latest in the Caribbean Sea

Tragically, at least 12 people have been killed in Monday's incident off the island of Ruatan, including Aurelio Martínez, an acclaimed Honduran musician. 

Heartbreaking images show the site of a deadly plane crash, where fishermen had to jump into action to pull victims out of the water

It comes just a month after Delta Connection Flight 4819 flipped upside down during a crash-landing at Toronto Airport which thankfully didn't kill anyone. 

That incident followed a devastating midair collision in Washington DC in late January, when all 67 people aboard an American Airlines flight and an army helicopter died.

And at the end of last year, Jeju Air Flight 2216 crashed at Muan International Airport in South Korea when it smashed into a concrete wall, killing 179 people. 

So why have so many planes been crashing? 

Scientists and aviation experts reveal the reason for the recent slew of incidents. 

Handout picture released by Honduran Police on March 17, 2025, shows the Lanhsa plane which crashed after taking off in Roatan, an island in the Caribbean
Honduran police help escort an injured man after a plane crash in Roatán on Monday night. The accident left 12 people dead and five injured

In 2025, the number of fatalities from accidents involving commercial aircraft is now more than 100 – already about a third of the total for the whole of 2024. 

However, aviation safety professional John Cox said there is 'not a degradation in aviation safety' and the recent accidents are 'not related'. 

'There have been a spike in the number of high profile accidents this year unfortunately,' Mr Cox told MailOnline. 

'But the overall statistics are clear that flying remains the safest form of transportation; remember that the US will have 44,000 deaths on the highways this year.' 

Arnold Barnett, a professor of statistics at the MIT Sloan School of Management, said he views the recent spike in crashes as a coincidence. 

'In the overwhelming majority of months, there are no fatal accidents on scheduled flights anywhere in the world,' he told MailOnline.

'Are we to believe that the skill that produced these stellar outcomes suddenly disappeared in late December 2024? 

'Also, the prominent recent crashes had very different causes, so they offer no evidence of a systematic problem that has become much more dangerous.'  

Honduran National Police officers and rescue teams from the Honduran government work in rescue operations after a small plane crashed into the Caribbean Sea off the coast of Roatan Island moments after taking off from Juan Manuel Gálvez Airport
Singer-songwriter, guitarist and percussionist Aurelio Martínez seen here at a June 11, 2016 show at the Hollywood Bowl in Hollywood, California. Martínez was one of the 12 passengers and crew members killed in plane crash in Honduras on Monday
December 29: This Boeing B737-800 crash-landed on its belly in South Korea before skidding off the runway and smashing into a concrete wall, erupting in a fireball

Until facts are known, it is unwise to speculate on what might have caused any single airline accident, said Dr Simon Ashley Bennett, director of the Civil Safety and Security Unit at the University of Leicester. 

But based on what we know, recent crashes were caused by various factors, from the bird strike on Jeju 2216 and the snowy, windy Toronto weather that impacted Delta 4819. 

Lanhsa Airlines Flight 018, the latest deadly incident, experienced a suspected mechanical failure, authorities believe – i.e. when parts fail to work. 

Also at the end of January, a Learjet 55 operating as a air ambulance crashed in Philadelphia, killing six people on board and one person on the ground – although this was not a commercial flight. 

Aviation expert Anthony Brickhouse pointed out that air travel remains the safest mode of transportation. 

'Statistically speaking, you’re safer in your flight than you were driving in your car to the airport,' he told CNN earlier this month. 

According to a recent BBC report, the number of air accidents in January 2025 (52), was lower than in January 2024 (58) and January 2023 (70).

What's more, over the past two decades there has been a general downward trend in air accidents despite an increase in the overall number of flights, it shows. 

January 29: In the Potomac River mid-air collision, American Eagle Flight 5342 collided with a helicopter over the Potomac River, Washington killing all 64 people onboard the plane and all 3 aboard the copter
February 19: Delta Connection flight from Minneapolis with 76 passengers and 4 crew lost its landing gear as it struck the runway, caught fire and flipped, losing its tail and wings. Mercifully, everyone survived

Most common causes of airplane crashes 

  • Pilot error
  • Mechanical failure
  • Weather conditions
  • Air traffic control errors
  • Bird strikes
  • Runway incursions 

However, in 2024 the total airline deaths numbered 318 – making last year the deadliest in commercial aviation since 2018. 

Worryingly, taking this year's fatal incidents into account, the figure for 2025 has already passed 100. 

But to put these figures into perspective, the average number of commercial flights per day is 105,972, according to global aviation data provider OAG. 

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) adds that there's on average just one accident for every 1.26 million flights. 

According to Dr Bennett at the University of Leicester, reasons for airline disasters include mechanical failure, bad weather, pilot error and other forms of human error. 

'Sometimes required to work long shifts, maintenance engineers can make potentially catastrophic mistakes,' he said in a 2015 piece for The Conversation

'It is important to remember that the pilot is the last line of defence when things go catastrophically wrong.' 

Meanwhile, aviation accidents caused by sabotage account for roughly 9 per cent of all crashes, according to Wisner Baum.

The September 11, 2001 hijackings, EgyptAir flight 990 and the Germanwings flight 9525 crashes are arguably some of the most notable sabotage crashes in recent history, the firm says. 

Seat by seat, scientists reveal your risk of dying on an airplane if it crashes - but the safest is the least popular 

The odds of dying in a plane crash are about one in 11 million, but the chances of surviving depend on your seating choice.

An aviation expert reveals a 44 per cent fatality rate for travelers sitting in the aisle seats in the middle of the craft, compared with 28 per cent for central rear seats.

Doug Drury, a professor at Central Queensland University, said because the aisle seats do not offer a buffer on one side, the passenger will likely be struck with crash properties.

Travelers unable to secure the safest seats may have better luck surviving in the middle and window seats of the middle part of the plane. 

However, the chances of dying in an aircraft accident have less to do with where you sit and more with the circumstances surrounding the crash. 

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