The past is the past. But it is hard not to recall that in the first quarter of last year, the UK's official growth data showed the economy going 'gangbusters'.

Rachel Reeves promised change, stability and growth. Her car crash October 30 Budget and mindless determination to talk down a mixed Tory legacy is delivering stagnation.

Major forecasters drastically have lowered projections for expansion in 2025.

In January at Davos, the IMF was projecting output of 1.6 per cent this year. That would have been helpful for the Chancellor ahead of the Spring statement on March 26. Reeves, having empowered the Office for Budget Responsibility in a bid to bolster Labour's credibility, is being hoist on her own petard.

The Bank of England says growth will be just 0.75 per cent. Goldman Sachs projects 0.9 per cent and that may not be the last downgrade.

Reeves, in response to the 0.1 per cent downturn in output in January, says the 'world has changed'. It certainly has since Donald Trump launched his blitz of 'peace-making' initiatives and unleashed a tariff war. All that happened after January, so it is no more than excuses from Reeves. Her suggestion that the sustained increase in defence spending will deliver for working people is hooey. 

Yes, it will eventually produce dividends for the UK's engineering, defence, and aerospace industries. But ramping up production is a slow burn and complex supply chains mean it will take time. It is unhelpful that several second-line strategic firms such as Cobham, Ultra Electronics, Meggitt and Inmarsat have been swallowed by overseas buyers.

Tariff uncertainty means the prospects of Trumpcession have multiplied. The US is Britain's biggest single trading partner and we will not be able to escape aftershocks. January output data was universally poor with manufacturing deep in the doldrums, construction failing to respond to a planning revolution and normally buoyant services showing strain.

Reeves will have seen the full horror of latest forecasts from the OBR. A combination of weak growth and a surging interest rate bill on the national debt has wiped out her £10billion of 'headroom', and more. Hence the desperate effort to make savings, with benefit bills in the frontline.

There is little room for optimism. The employers' national insurance rise has yet to bite. Incomes of better-off Britons are being squeezed by the freeze on tax thresholds. The cost hit to firms from Angela Rayner's trade union inspired Employment Rights Bill are a headache for private sector firms using part-time workers.

If the Government is serious about restoring overseas aid to 0.7 per cent of national income by 2027, it would cost £14billion a year by 2030. There are big and necessary cuts to be made. The concern must now be that the UK will find itself in a fiscal doom loop. Reeves's pledge to the CBI not to come back for more taxes will be ditched, to the detriment of wealth creation.

All that glistens..

The surge in gold prices to $3,000-an-ounce in latest trading – a 14 per cent jump on the year – owes a great deal to the rise in geo-political tensions and Trump's assault on the global trade. It is close to a point where the yellow metal will soon be too pricey for all but the very top end of the jewellery trade. Some 54 years have passed since Richard Nixon cut the dollar-gold link with the expectation that the value of the de-monetised bullion would stagnate. Quite the reverse.

Central banks, including those of China and Russia, have been weighing into the gold market. The concern is that after Western countries seized Russian dollar assets around the world in response to the Kremlin's war on Ukraine, holding the greenback as a reserve currency is risky.

Gold ingots are the safest haven.

Losing power

Broker Jefferies cautions that Reckitt Benckiser faces a re-trial over allegations that its Mead Johnson baby formula caused intestinal disease in premature babies. It was thought the litigation, with a potential liability of £1.5billion this year, had gone away. Chief executive Mehmood Khan can take no personal blame for random American courts.

But he could be held responsible for subdued performance of power brands, such as Dettol and Durex, and a share price in the doldrums.

pledge to the CBI not to come back for more taxes will be ditched, to the detriment of wealth creation.