A deal between the political parties on the Right could secure a landslide majority and torpedo the chances of a coalition of the 'Loony Left' seizing power in Britain, a major study reveals today.

Research commissioned by The Mail on Sunday reveals how 15 Labour Ministers, including Health Secretary Wes Streeting, would be swept away if Reform and the Conservatives agreed not to stand against each other in a string of what would then be winnable seats.

The exclusive analysis by polling firm Electoral Calculus shows that such an agreement between the two parties could give them 81 seats which would otherwise be won by Left-wing rivals, based on current polling.

It would see the toppling of Keir Starmer's Chief Secretary Darren Jones, Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn and Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens from the Cabinet, as well as Mr Streeting.

The study last night fuelled calls for parties on the Right to unite and turn their attention to winning power instead of fighting each other. It comes after a seismic You Gov poll last week suggested that a coalition of Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party would have the backing of more than half the electorate.

One former Tory MP, who lost his seat to Labour in 2024 after Reform split the Right-leaning vote, last night called for an agreement between the parties 'in specific circumstances, in specific seats'. 

Brendan Clarke-Smith, the ex-MP for Bassetlaw, told the MoS: 'This should be an emergency response to saving the country from a potentially dreadful scenario. I know from my own experience what two Right-of-centre candidates standing in the same seat can lead to – a Labour victory.'

Analysts at Electoral Calculus used up-to-date polling data to project what would happen in all 650 parliamentary constituencies if an election was held tomorrow. Taking into account tactical voting, no single party would have a majority, setting the scene for horse-trading and an unstable coalition.

But the study revealed that a pact between the Tories and Reform not to split the vote on the Right would deliver a combined total of 457 seats – 131 more than the number needed for a majority.

Crucially, 81 battleground seats projected to be won by one of the Left-wing parties, would instead become either Tory or Reform gains. Other eye-catching forecasts say that if there was a deal:

• Former Tory Chancellor Jeremy Hunt would see off a Lib Dem challenge and keep his Surrey seat;
• Reform would win Gorton and Denton – the Manchester seat where Labour leadership hopeful Andy Burnham could stand;
• A Green Party bid to topple Hilary Benn from his seat in Leeds would fail, with Reform winning;
• The Tories would win back seven seats from the Lib Dems in its former 'Blue Wall', mainly in the South;
• 16 'Red Wall' seats projected to stay Labour in the absence of a deal, would fall to Reform.

The Electoral Calculus study assumes deals are done in seats where Reform is ahead in the polls and the Tories are in third place or worse and vice-versa. It was then predicted that 80 per cent of votes would transfer between parties once one of them stood down. 

Martin Baxter, chief executive of Electoral Calculus, said: 'Either the Right or Left of British politics could win a massive majority if it either made an electoral pact with its allies, or even had a merger.

'Our figures show that a hypothetical Conservative-Reform alliance might win a landslide majority, though achieving such a deal has long odds against it.'

The study shows that a deal would deliver Reform an extra 60 seats, and the Tories an extra 21. It would cost Labour 31 seats, the Lib Dems 24 and the Greens 12.

Under current polling, Darren Jones, one of Keir Starmer's key allies, is forecast to retain his Bristol North West seat. But if the Tories step aside, it is predicted he would be defeated by Reform.

Other Ministers projected to lose their seats under a deal include Foreign Office Minister Stephen Doughty, Science Minister Ian Murray, Treasury Minister Dan Tomlinson and Equalities Minister Seema Malhotra.

Support for Nigel Farage's Reform UK has dipped in recent weeks, with its poll numbers sliding from a peak of 32 per cent to 29 per cent now. Election guru Sir John Curtice last week said that by 2028 the Tories and Reform will have to evaluate whether they are winning the battle for Right-of-centre votes or whether 'it's in their respective interest to come to an accommodation'.

But both Mr Farage and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch have dismissed calls for a deal. Mr Farage last week said he will not come to an agreement 'with dishonest people that don't deserve our trust'.

A spokesman for Mrs Badenoch said she had been clear 'there will never be a pact under her leadership'. In the wake of our research this weekend, both sides were urged to reconsider. 

Ex-Tory MP Nick Fletcher said: 'Reform is doing extremely well at the moment, but a lot can happen between now and the election. The polls will definitely tighten and that's when the other parties become a threat. The Right needs to come together. If we end up with five parties, it's going to be very difficult to govern.'

Mr Baxter at Electoral Calculus added: 'Under our first-past-the-post system, the side which is the most united has the best chance of winning at a general election. 

Today, the Right is split two ways between the Conservatives and Reform, but the Left is split three-and-a-half ways between Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens, and (a bit) Your Party. That gives the Right an advantage, even if that's softened somewhat by likely anti-Reform tactical voting.'

Critics have warned that a so-called 'Rainbow Coalition' of Left-wing parties could damage Britain's standing in the world.

Green leader Zack Polanski wants the UK to scrap its Trident nuclear deterrent and last week called for all the US military to leave Britain.

He has said he would consider an alliance with Labour if Sir Keir Starmer stood down as leader.

How Hunt would be rescued from threat of Lib Dems 

Former Tory Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is expected to lose his long-held Surrey seat at the next election unless the Right-wing parties agree to unite. 

Today’s analysis shows he would suffer a devastating defeat to the Lib Dems in his Godalming and Ash if Reform fielded a candidate. But if Nigel Farage’s party agreed not to fight the seat, he would retain it.

The constituency has traditionally been seen as part of the ‘Blue Wall’ of Conservative seats across affluent areas of southern England. 

But Hunt, who was first elected in 2005, only narrowly kept his seat in the 2024 election, winning an 891 majority over the Lib Dems. He is one of many Blue Wall Tories who have seen their support eroded over the last decade, beginning in the wake of the 2016 Brexit referendum.

Electoral Calculus predict that if an election were to be held tomorrow, the Lib Dems would win 41 per cent of the vote in Hunt’s seat, the Tories 37 per cent and Reform UK 14 per cent. But if Reform decided to step aside and at least 80 per cent of Reform voters transferred to the Tories, Hunt would keep his seat.

…while Wes could be ousted by Reform

At the 2024 election, Wes Streeting’s suburban London constituency was seen as an ideological battleground between competing factions on the Left.

In the end, the Health Secretary narrowly saw off a challenge by independent candidate Leanne Mohamad, a 25-year-old British Palestinian activist who ran a robustly pro-Gaza campaign.

But, remarkably, today’s findings show the Ilford North seat could be taken by Reform if the two parties of the Right came to an electoral deal. After months of pro-Gaza protests outside his constituency office in North East London, Mr Streeting saw his majority slashed from more than 9,000 to just 528 in the last election.

With such a slender majority – less than one per cent – polling suggest he will lose his seat at the next ballot, whether the Tories and Reform unite or not.

If both Right-wing parties stood a candidate, Mr Streeting faces losing the seat he has held since 2015 to either another Left-wing independent pro-Gaza candidate, or someone from Jeremy Corbyn’s new hard-Left Your Party.

But if the Right united, Reform would take the seat, assuming that 80 per cent of Conservative voters would switch to Nigel Farage’s party if the Tories weren’t on the ballot paper.

If the analysis by Electoral Calculus proved right, it would be an astounding victory for Reform in a seat where almost a third of people (32 per cent) say they are Muslim.