The Alps will experience 'peak glacier extinction' in just eight years – with thousands of glaciers lost forever, an ominous study has predicted.
Using state–of–the–art models, researchers calculated how many glaciers are likely to remain by the end of the century.
If Earth experiences a temperature rise of 1.5°C – a scenario that scientists warn is becoming increasingly likely – only 430 glaciers out of today's 3,000 located in the European Alps will remain by the end of the century, they predict.
A temperature rise of 2.7°C would see 110 glaciers remain, while 4°C warming would see that number plunge to just 20.
In the 4°C warming scenario, the mighty Aletsch Glacier – the largest glacier in the entire Alps – would fragment into several smaller parts.
According to the results, the world could hit 'peak glacier extinction' – the point when annual glacier loss hits its maximum – as early as 2033.
While not all ski resorts are based on glaciers, many utilise them for reliable snow, especially for year–round or extended seasons.
'When a glacier disappears completely, it can severely impact tourism in a valley,' lead author Lander Van Tricht, from ETH Zurich, said.
For their study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, the researchers ran projections using three state–of–the–art global glacier models and several climate scenarios.
They found that regions with many small glaciers at lower elevations or near the equator are particularly vulnerable – including the Alps.
'In these regions, more than half of all glaciers are expected to vanish within the next 10 to 20 years,' Dr Van Tricht said.
Global warming could also mean medium–sized glaciers in the Alps such as the Rhône would shrink to tiny remnants of ice or disappear completely, the researchers said.
The team warned that melting glaciers can have an impact on tourism, with some resorts already having to adapt to climate change.
'Many people ski on glaciers in early/late winter or even in summer because snow conditions are often more reliable at high elevation on the ice,' Dr Van Tricht told the Daily Mail.
'If these glaciers vanish, this type of skiing becomes increasingly difficult or impossible.
'We already see glacier ski areas adapting by relocating or closing lifts or infrastructure.'
The projections showed that in the Rocky Mountains, around 75 per cent of today's existing glaciers would be lost under a 1.5°C warming scenario. In the Andes and Central Asia, more than half would disappear.
The study also revealed that there is no region left in the world where glacier numbers are not declining.
Even in the Karakoram of Central Asia, where some glaciers temporarily grew after the turn of the millennium, glaciers are projected to disappear.
'The results underline how urgently ambitious climate action is needed,' co–author Professor Daniel Farinotti said.
The study reads: 'Glaciers attract millions of visitors each year, offering opportunities for recreation, education and outreach.
'Many ski resorts also depend on glaciers, meaning their disappearance could affect winter tourism economies.
'While glaciers are expected to shrink significantly this century, many could still survive, especially if global warming is limited.
'Under a 1.5°C scenario, the projected number of glaciers lost over the next 20–30 years is roughly half of that expected under a 4°C trajectory.'
A study, published last year, found one in eight ski sites will have no days of snow cover at all by the end of the century.
The team, from the University of Bayreuth, looked at seven popular skiing areas around the world – the European Alps, Andes Mountains, Appalachian Mountains, Australian Alps, Japanese Alps, Southern Alps (located in New Zealand), and Rocky Mountains.
They then identified what parts of these regions are used for skiing and used climate models to see how many days of snow coverage they would receive under different emissions scenarios.
In a 'high emissions' scenario, 13 per cent of the world's ski areas would be completely snow free by 2071–2100.
