Home values are falling for more than half of America — the biggest share since the country was still clawing its way out of the Great Recession.
New data from Zillow shows that 53 percent of US homes have lost value over the past year, the highest level since 2012, when the housing crash finally hit bottom.
The national market looks flat on paper, but that average masks huge differences between regions, cities and even neighborhoods.
Prices have been slipping in much of the South and West as more homes hit the market and buyers stay on the sidelines.
Many would-be buyers are holding off amid recession fears, stubbornly high mortgage rates above 6 percent, and a standoff with sellers who refuse to cut asking prices.
Many of the biggest drops are in once-red-hot pandemic boomtowns. In Denver, 91 percent of homes have fallen from their peak value. It’s 89 percent in Austin, and 88 percent in Sacramento.
Florida has been hit hard too: more than 80 percent of homes in Jacksonville, Orlando and Tampa are now worth less than they were a year ago. Dallas and San Antonio are also seeing declines of more than 85 percent.
Zillow's report echoes a similar one from S&P Cotality Case-Shiller that looked at the biggest 20 US metros, and found nine had seen house prices fall.
Across the country, the average drop from peak valuation is 9.7 percent — steeper than the tiny dip seen in 2022 but still nowhere near the 27 percent crash recorded after 2008.
Despite the widespread declines, very few homeowners are actually underwater.
Nationally, the median gain since a home was last sold is 67 percent. In some markets — including Buffalo, San Jose, Providence, Columbus and San Diego — values have doubled over time.
Owners tend to stay put longer in these cities, which allows equity to build rapidly.
Overall, very few Americans are in a home worth less than they paid for it. Only 4.1 percent of US homes are now valued below their last sale price, a smaller share than before the pandemic.
Even among new listings, just 3.4 percent are priced below what the seller originally paid — roughly half the rate seen in 2019.
The markets seeing the most listings priced below previous sale prices are the ones that surged fastest during the pandemic, including San Francisco, Austin and San Jose.
But in many metros across the Northeast, Midwest and Great Lakes region, less than 2 percent of sellers are taking a loss.
Zillow says that while the pullback feels alarming, it’s not a sign of another crash.
‘Homeowners may feel rattled when they see their Zestimate drop,’ said Treh Manhertz, a senior economic researcher at Zillow.
‘But relatively few are selling at a loss. Home values surged over the past six years, and the vast majority of homeowners still have significant equity. What we’re seeing now is a normalization, not a crash.’
For homeowners, the message is mixed: values may be slipping from their highs, but most people still have a large equity cushion. For buyers, the market remains stuck — prices are softening, but not enough to offset high mortgage rates or spark a buying surge.