Storm Melissa officially formed in the Caribbean Sea on Tuesday morning, and early forecasts indicate it could strengthen rapidly.

An experimental Google DeepMind weather model shows nearly all projections pushing Melissa to Category 5 intensity, with sustained winds exceeding 157 mph, capable of causing catastrophic damage.

Currently a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, Melissa's potential path was highlighted in a spaghetti model shared by meteorologist Ryan Maue, former chief scientist at NOAA. 

Maue posted that the model's updated 12z run shows 'almost all Category 5, not kidding,' on X.

According to the model, the densest cluster of tracks begins roughly 300 miles south of Haiti. The storm is expected to move west at 12 to 15 mph toward the western Caribbean, approaching southwestern Haiti and Jamaica. 

By October 24 to 27, Melissa is projected to slow, turn northwest, and hover near the Cayman Islands and southwest of Jamaica and Cuba, where warm waters could fuel further intensification to Category 3 to 5 strength.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned on Tuesday that computer models are disagreeing as some show Melissa turning northeast, while others predict it could stall or drift west. 

However, some spaghetti models have also suggested a dangerously close approach to Florida, with meteorologists warning the US is not out of the clear just yet.

Maue added that the main ECMWF model run (a highly respected European model) also shows that Tropical Storm Melissa could strengthen into a Category 5 or stronger hurricane as it moves over the very warm waters southwest of Jamaica in the western Caribbean.

Florida Storm Chasers posted on X: The latest 00z CMC model run still favors the western track of Tropical Storm Melissa, showing a hurricane 'potentially coming dangerously close to Florida within the next seven days. We'll keep you updated!'

The National Weather Service for Tampa Bay noted that there is no immediate threat to west central and southwest Florida.

However, the agency told residents and visitors to monitor the forecast for updates.

Chris Nabholz, a meteorologist for Deep South Weather, also noted that Melissa will likely not be an issue for the US, but warned, 'the Florida Peninsula should keep an eye on it, lots of uncertainty still.'

The NHC released the first official cone for Melissa, showing what meteorologist Gerald Mengel called 'a nightmare.'

'The first official cone for Tropical Storm Melissa shows the nightmare of a forecast this storm will be,' Mengel, who is affiliated with  WCCB Charlotte in North Carolina, posted on X.

'All options are still on the table, and it's TOO SOON to rule out US impacts in the 7+ day range.'

However, wind shear and dry air might limit its growth. Because of this, forecasters expect it to strengthen slowly rather than rapidly. 

Its future strength will depend on its track, which is still uncertain, the agency explained.

AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said in a statement: 'While we think that the chances of a direct U.S. hit from this storm are low right now, it's still on the table should the tropical system make it into the western Caribbean.'

In October, tropical storms entering the western Caribbean typically veer away from Texas and Louisiana. 

However, the eastern US, especially Florida, remains at risk for powerful storms. 

Matt Devitt, chief meteorologist at Florida's WINK News, said on X: 'The trend has been our friend, with almost all models keeping Melissa east of [Florida]. 

'I do have a small amount that shows the possibility, but at the present time, it has a better chance of not hitting Florida than hitting Florida.'

AccuWeather also said it is possible the system could become the next hurricane of the season in the warm waters of the central Caribbean. 

The Meteorological Service for Jamaica issued a Tropical Storm Watch before the storm was named.

'When the system is in the vicinity of Jamaica, it is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall, strong gusty winds, possibly reaching tropical storm force, primarily over northeastern and southern parishes late Wednesday and Thursday,' the alert stated. 

The NHC issued a hurricane watch for the southern coast and the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti.

'Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by Thursday,' the agency warned. 

'There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Melissa.' 

Although models show uncertainty about the system's path, storm chaser Mitch West warned on X: 'You would be a fool to say this has zero percent chance of impacting the US.

'The chances are low, but it's certainly possible, and we have surely seen it happen in the past. With a large trough signal showing up at the end of the month, you can have weird stuff happen depending on its position.

'A trough doesn't always push things out to sea; it can sometimes pull on things.'

'Folks all through the Antilles from Puerto Rico to Cuba should be prepared for potential impacts from this system if it develops.'

Andy Hazelton, associate Scientist at the University of Miami CIMAS, shared the three scenarios on X over the weekend. 

Scenario one shows the storm making a quick northeastern turn across Hispaniola, with a path mostly affecting the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

The second suggests the system stays weak and develops deeper in the Caribbean, moving closer to Nicaragua or Honduras.

The third scenario shows the storm taking longer to form, but developing into a powerful hurricane in the northwest Caribbean.

This track could threaten Cuba, the Bahamas, and potentially extreme South Florida and the Keys.

'I'm personally leaning more towards Scenarios 2 or 3, with slower development and a track either towards Central America or into the NW Caribbean, but certainly Scenario 1 is on the table if it gets organized and feels the weakness to the north,' said Hazelton.