Elite universities have hoovered up a larger share of students this year, putting lower-ranked institutions at risk of mergers, data suggests.
New analysis by Times Higher Education shows that the top third of universities recruited two-fifths of school-leavers, leaving fewer for the others.
These top establishments – mainly made up of the Russell Group – were looking to fill spaces left by a dip in international students. However, if the trend continues, the lower-prestige institutions will become unviable due to lack of numbers, experts warn.
Bob Savill, head of student recruitment at the University of Chichester, told THE: ‘For the rest of the sector, it’s going to be very challenging and... one would imagine we’ll see mergers, and so on, in the coming year.’
Analysis of Ucas data released on A-level results day show ‘higher-tariff’ universities – those ranked in the top third for how demanding their entry requirements are – took a disproportionate share of the students this year.
Of the total 255,130 UK 18-year-olds accepted on to degree courses, they took 41 per cent. This left ‘medium-tariff’ ones with 32 per cent of the share and ‘lower-tariff’ ones with just 27 per cent.
The share taken by the top universities is a rise from 40 per cent last year and 37 per cent in 2023. Mark Corver, former managing director of dataHE, said: ‘It will widen the effective resourcing gap between universities and mean things are not going to get any easier for lower-tariff [institutions].’
The situation has been partly enabled by a rise in top grades, meaning more pupils hit the entry requirements for top universities.
Overall, 28.3 per cent of entries got A/A* this year, compared with 27.8 per cent last year, and 25.4 per cent in 2019. Bar the Covid years of 2020-2022, when grades were vastly inflated due to teacher assessment when exams were cancelled, this is the highest proportion on record.
The scramble for students has been caused by an overall drop in lucrative international applicants, after a change in visa rules.
It meant three quarters of Russell Group universities entered clearing this year, including Durham, Bristol and King’s College London. Between them, they had 3,492 courses available – 13 per cent of the 26,000 courses on offer across all universities. The Russell Group was contacted for comment.
It comes as a report for Buckingham University found boys were ‘chronically underperforming’ at GCSE level, with results out on Thursday. Last year, 24.7 per cent of female entries achieved at least a grade 7 (the old A) – compared with 19 per cent of male entries.
Dr Tim Bradshaw, chief executive of the Russell Group, said: 'Demand for high-quality higher education continues to grow, driven by students seeking excellent teaching and strong career outcomes.
'Universities are working hard to meet this demand so that more students across the country, including those from disadvantaged backgrounds, can benefit from a transformational experience.
'Where undergraduate numbers are growing, this is done strategically and proportionately, and always with a clear focus on quality.
'It’s also important to remember that undergraduate numbers only tell part of the story, as postgraduate growth varies significantly across the sector.
'It’s an increasingly challenging ecosystem for all universities.
'To re-establish stability for everyone, we need a financially sustainable long-term future for the whole sector and a shared commitment to quality, access and expanding opportunity, to help ensure a resilient pipeline of students across all types of institutions.'
